Principally, sure.
My family is multiply immune compromised with poor vaccine response, problematic vaccine reactions, and at elevated danger for post-COVID issues (together with acute and everlasting flare up of pre-existing situations). The poor outcomes I see in folks with the identical diagnoses will not be captured normally statistics on COVID-19 outcomes. So I really feel like my head is in an identical similar place because it has been. Plenty of the individuals who have been most vulnerable to lengthy hospitalizations and horrific ICU deaths already died, however the virus isn’t simply secure to catch now for individuals who can’t depend on vaccines to forestall poor outcomes.
Transmission is basically excessive proper now with a brand new circulating pandemic variant and one other one most likely on the way in which for this winter (by wastewater estimates, which traditionally tracked fairly effectively with case information, greater than 1 in 40 folks within the USA is presently contaminated). WHO acknowledges the pandemic as current tense; so far as I do know, it’s solely talked about as previous tense in political contexts?
I’ll say that even for wholesome folks, I’ve not seen proof to assist the concept COVID-19 has related ramifications to the flu for any danger cohort. Except for all the opposite variations between the viruses, one bout of the flu sometimes confers immunity that lasts 5 years or so, so folks simply don’t catch it as typically over the course of their lifespan. Extra folks find yourself with new power situations after COVID than after flu. Extra folks find yourself with dysregulated immunity and for longer; extra folks expertise a brand new power sickness, organ injury, or a cardiac occasion publish an infection. Simply counting lengthy COVID syndrome and never different issues, the bottom current estimate for lengthy COVID following an an infection is round 3%.
My neighborhood continues to endure from absences and closures throughout these huge waves as a result of some individuals are simply too symptomatic to work sick. COVID-19 is just a little uncommon in that the way in which it undermines immune perform invitations coinfections, so winter waves are particularly tough with folks getting one an infection after one other (not simply COVID) and generally greater than one by one.
Even earlier than there was ever a vaccine, many individuals made the statement {that a} majority of sufferers skilled the virus as only a chilly and made the argument that it was fantastic to dwell life as traditional. Many individuals did ignore it from the beginning and accepted the dangers to themselves or others.
When the vaccine got here out, the promise was that it could scale back transmission sufficient that individuals wouldn’t must masks or isolate (and most public indoor areas wouldn’t want to fulfill increased air flow or filtration requirements for the air) with a purpose to curb transmission, forestall new variants from arising, and shield immune compromised folks in the neighborhood. However as folks dropped suppression measures, the virus shortly evaded immunity to the purpose that there have been absolutely vaccinated tremendous spreader occasions. Extra folks have died since then than died earlier than. However vaccinated individuals who have been low danger to start with have been statistically even decrease danger as soon as vaccinated, and once more the acute signs have been all the time chilly like for a majority of sufferers, so that they determined to simply accept the dangers that others had already accepted.
All trigger mortality has continued to spike after each wave for so long as we’ve tracked it. Vaccinated folks fared higher than unvaccinated within the stats, however the one demographic whose mortality wasn’t elevated above pre-pandemic norms have been individuals who hadn’t had COVID in any respect.
I respect that individuals get to decide on their very own dangers to absorb life, how a lot time they wish to spend below the climate, and what odds they discover acceptable for what outcomes; individuals are in every kind of various conditions.
